Democratic voters just scored a 10-point slip in the state Trump won last year. how?
The answer is the modern trend of defining elections: There are two different voters who voted in the Trump era.
Liberal Democratic Judge Susan Crawford defeated Republican-backed rival Tuesday night Nearly 300,000 votes – A 10-point profit – President Donald Trump led the state for less than a year on his way to the battlefield.
She won more than 2.3 million votes, accounting for about two-thirds of the vote Last year’s voters. This is far more than Last time Highly watched 2022 mid-term.
Crawford’s victory was symbolic for many reasons. It was both a few months of referendum on the Trump administration Elon Musk participates And spend it in the game. It is a test of liberal organizations and democratic enthusiasm ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, as the party’s foundation requires their leaders to do more and they are looking for ways to resist Trump.
But Wisconsin’s weird voting dynamics during the Trump era, coupled with the special and high elections in other countries, also demonstrates Trump’s role in fighting for the electoral coalition and in the balance of power in Washington and the United States.
Two different voters who polarize education, class and political participation have emerged – one benefiting from Democrats and the other benefiting from Democrats, which is entirely beneficial to himself.
Wisconsin’s nearest landscape
Wisconsin has been a strange place in the Trump era. As a battlefield for president and state competitions, it rushes between few elected Republican or Democratic presidential candidates and between comfortable profits running for liberals and Democrats in a deviant or mid-cycle run.
- 2016: Red. trump card Flip statefor a long time, a small percentage of the Democratic Party’s “blue walls” (rust belt, the vast majority of which are white working-class countries, once elected Democrats) have a margin of 0.7%, or about 20,000 votes. White working class and educated voters came out to vote for Trump, while minority voters declined in turnout, which was destined to Hillary Clinton.
- 2018: Blue. Just two years later, the state’s progressive Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin won re-election About 10 minutesInfluenced by high democratic enthusiasm and ace dissatisfaction. Suburban and urban centers promote Baldwin’s victory as college education across the country, wealthy and suburban voters leave Trump Republican Party and feel comfortable voting for the Democrats.
- 2020: Blue. Joe Biden pulled the country from Trump, but barely. He won 0.62% profitmuch closer than expected, as Trump was able to get more votes from his white non-college-educated voters again. Turnout in cities and suburban areas helped Democrats outnumber the number of new rural and non-college education voters offered to Trump.
- 2022: Red (almost). Two years later, in the midterm elections, another senator in the state, conservative, super Maga loyalist Ron Johnson, expected much better. Keep his seat Profit from 20,000 votes (or 1%). Most counties in the state Move to the right This makes it a little abnormal between the states on the battlefield in that election compared to 2020.
- 2024: Red again. Trump will continue Win state in 2024When he beat more rural voters, he beat Kamala Harris with about 30,000 votes, or 0.86%. Except for four Higher cities and college education counties will be transferred to that year’s rights.
What is the explanation for these wild swings?
A clear story comes when Wisconsin’s overall turnout, county-specific demographics, democratic enthusiasm, and polls. This story fits the state’s election model. Wisconsin’s 2025 voters are democratic: not only composed of the most informed and dedicated voters, but also some convinced low-priced voters. Steve Kornacki, a data journalist Note before the electionwhen Trump is not on the voting, the pro-Trump blue-collar white voters have less motivation to vote than those with anti-Trump college education.
This dynamic led to results such as Tuesday night, when the state’s well-educated, democratic districts have voted in turnout in an area like the state Much higher More than turnout in educated, pro-Trump places. The symbolic location is the residence of Dane County, Madison: Crawford More Net Votes More than Democratic 2022 Senate nominee Mandela Barnes.
This dynamic may continue to be repeated
Wisconsin is just the latest example of how two different voters determine the balance of power in the United States.
Lower high profile, educated non-universities and (recently) dissatisfied when Trump voted Voters of color Even if they don’t necessarily vote for other Republicans, they are more likely to vote for him.
This is a factor that not only contributed to Harris’ losses in 2024, but also caused the Senate and House Democrats to perform too much in swing states. Democratic Senate candidates, such as Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, Ruben Gallego of Arizona, and Baldwin of Wisconsin, all surpassed Harris’ performance and won their respective games, in part because Republicans’ vote for Trump did not misunderstand their own vote.
When Trump is not on the voting, highly aggressive, highly informed and dissatisfied anti-Trump voters (some of whom are former Republicans) remain valid, or even higher tax rates for Democratic candidates at a higher rate-those who still win a portion of Republicans who can convince Democrats to vote. Meanwhile, lower Trump voters stay at home.
This is a historic transformation. For much of the past 30 years, Republican voters have been more satisfied, higher voters, who will stand out in the out-of-year elections and will therefore benefit from smaller voters. When Barack Obama doesn’t vote, Democrats are the ones who work to get voters to polls. But as Democrats lose more white, unpopular educational voters, the Republicans have been trading many higher education, college education and wealthier voters and traded in the Trump era.
This pattern was proven again in Wisconsin this week, but it was also proven in special elections across the country. In the first and sixth congressional districts of Florida Share of Republican voters It turned out that he voted for the Democratic candidate, especially in District 1, where there are more College-educated voters. This is also a factor 2022 mid-termwhen states like Arizona, Nevada and Georgia have multiple public voters still The Democratic Senate candidate was eventually sent to Congress.
Democrats are celebrating Wisconsin’s latest victory, with clear signs that the following year saw many democratic victories in statewide and in House elections. But, in the next presidential election, the dynamics of saving them may not save them (Trump may not be on the ballot). They may have more lessons to learn how to leverage the fundamentals that benefit from their now, and they certainly have lessons to learn how to deal with Trump’s influence before the next presidential cycle.
