Tallinn, Estonia – last time Russia and Belarus Moscow held its main joint military exercise in 2022, sending troops into Ukraine A few days later. Now, two close allies are playing war games again, reincreasing tensions in the region
The war game is called “Zapad 2025” or “West 2025” and happens in Belarus Starting Friday, it will last until September 16. Forces from both countries will simulate repelling attacks, including air strikes and sabotage.
The goal is to demonstrate the close ties between Moscow and Minsk, and the Russian army may be in its 3½-year proximity war Ukraine.
The war game has attracted attention in Kyiv and its Western allies in Latvia. Lithuania and Polandwhich boundary Belarus. Russian President Vladimir Putin sends troops into Ukraine February 24, 2022, many of them from Belarus.
Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said this year’s exercise “hindered U.S. President Donald Trump’s peace efforts to end the war” and “formed not only a direct threat Ukrainebut also Polandthe Baltic states and the entire Europe. ”
On Wednesday, tensions in the region grew even higher after that Poland Several Russian drones entered their territory and in NATO Allies. A lot from BelarusPolish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said.
Russian troops say this is not targeted Polandand Belarus The suggested drones are off the route – but several European leaders say it seems to be intentional.
About practice knowledge:
Belarusian defense officials initially said about 13,000 troops would participate in the exercise to be held near its western border. In May, however, its Defense Ministry said the number would cut it almost half, and the main drills would be deeper in the country. Part of the exercise will also happen Russia.
Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin Poland and Lithuania. Krensing said two of the five new fortifications set up for the exercise are also located in these areas.
Belarus Official invitations were also sent to all Member States of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and nine countries NATO Military fixed in Minsk to monitor exercises.
Authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko recently expressed his willingness to patch his relationship with the West because of his brutal suppression of dissent and support for him, which has been severely nervous Russia’s war Ukraine.
Over the past year, political prisoners have been regularly released, with the public calling for reconciliation with the West. Lukashenko spoke with Trump over the phone last month, who called him a “respected president” in social media posts. This is in stark contrast to other Western leaders who largely avoided Belarusians.
Lukashenko ruled Belarus I have been using iron hands for more than 30 years and rely on the subsidies and support of the Kremlin. He allows Russia Use other countries’ territory as a platform to send troops into Ukraine And presided over some tactical nuclear weapons in Moscow.
Now, Lukashenko Belarus Chatham House’s director of initiatives in recent comments.
Another reason is Russiain a battle of attrition in a front line of about 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) Ukrainecannot be used for the exercise remaining amount, BelarusAlexander Alesin, Belarusian analyst, said the numbers are also limited.
The West estimates are different. Some believe that the number of troops involved may be around 30,000, while others say as much as 150,000. According to Russian authorities, in September 2021, the Zappad exercise last held about 200,000 troops.
According to Khrenin, during this year’s exercise, the troops will practice “planned to use” Russian nuclear weapons and intermediate missiles Moscow promised to provide Minsk with Russian nuclear weapons and nuclear capabilities.
In December, Lukashenko and Putin signed a treaty. Belarusincluding the possible use of Russian nuclear weapons to repel any aggression.
At that time, Lukashenko asked Putin to Belarusincluding the Oreshnik intermediate ballistic missile with nuclear energy Russia First used in November Ukraine.
Putin replied that Oreshnik missiles could be deployed to Belarus In the second half of 2025, it was added that they will remain under Russian control, but Moscow will allow Minsk to choose targets.
The treaty follows Moscow’s revision of its nuclear doctrine, which is the first time it has been proposed. Belarus Below Russia’s Nuclear umbrella with tensions with the West.
Russia hasn’t said how many tactical nuclear weapons it deploys Belarusbut Lukashenko said in December that his country has dozens of people. Deploy extensions Russia’s How many can be targeted NATO Allies of Eastern and Central Europe.
Andrey Baklitskiy, a senior researcher at the UN Institute for Disarmament, said the two countries announced that only decisions on nuclear weapons could be implemented in exercises, rather than their physical deployment.
Carrying Russian nuclear weapons BelarusBaklitskiy said there are many problems that need to be addressed in terms of procedures.
“You have dual subordinates, you have your own boss. … In order to understand how this should work, there will likely be practices for this.”
Despite seemingly light remarks Belarus About Zapad 2025, NATO Members remained vigilant.
Even before the drone invasion, Tusk said on Tuesday that Zappad’s exercise constituted “very radical” military manipulation, “very close to” the borders of his country, accompanied by “provocation.” Russia and Belarus.
Poland Responding to his own military exercises.
Tusk added that Suwalki Gap – a strategic land Poland and Lithuania That’s separate Belarus from Russia’s The Baltic Sea is far from Kaliningrad – one of Zapad’s goals, he suggests fear Poland They may be an exercise in attacking later.
Suwalki gap has long been considered a potential flash point Russia and NATO. Lukashenko put aside the idea of attacking Suwalki Gap in the Zapad exercise because of “complete nonsense”.
President’s Gitanas Nasse Lithuania June said that while the drills look “two to three times smaller than the 2021 exercise,” Vilnius and his allies are ready for “any form of surprise.” Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovilėšakalienė added that it will be practiced in parallel with Zapad 2025.
In the weeks of September, Germany will lead its own major military exercises, and Quadriga 2025 is expected to match Zapad 2025.
Ukrainian President Vodimir Zelenskyy repeatedly warned Russia Another attack may be planned during practice.
Baklitskiy said it was “not obvious” that it could accumulate a large number of attackable contingents. Belarus At this point, there is no sign that this is happening. Still, “when they exercise to fight, it always attracts attention and always causes negative reactions,” he said.
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The Associated Press contributed in Berlin’s Geir Moulson and Warsaw’s Claudia Ciobanu.
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