At the height of the Iraq War, the blogger coined the word “Friedman Unit”Refer to New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman claims that the next six months are crucial to identifying the outcome of the conflict.
Everything has intensified a lot in our post-era era, so the Ukrainian war equivalent of Trump’s troops may only be appropriate. President Donald Trump said he would “severe weeks” to Russian President Vladimir Putin last month, taking serious steps to end the war before imposing new penalties on Russia. “I’ll know what I’m going to do in two weeks.” He told CNN. Trump has Putin was given two more weeks In April, May, and July. (This is Not the only problem Trump promised to be determined within two weeks. )
Trump had promised to end the war within 24 hours of his tenure, and eight months later, there seemed to be two constants: Trump’s frustration thought Putin might be “Knock me“When he continued to launch an attack on Ukrainian cities, his seemingly unshakable belief Putin was serious about achieving peace – in which case the determination to war might be approaching.
“I think [Putin] Want to make an agreement for me, you know it sounds crazy,” he Tell French President Emmanuel Macron On the popular microphone moment at the White House on August 18. Two weeks later, he declared himself “Very disappointed”In Putin.
None of this means that conversations with Russia are meaningless. Even the most fleeting results should be explored. But unfortunately, this war is likely to last for a long time.
Where is the red line for each country?
The biggest change since Trump took office since the war is that both sides are talking about it. U.S. officials have been with their Russia in Ukraine Since February, the Joe Biden-era mantra has reversed the conversation of “Ukraine without Ukraine.” Russia and Ukraine also held The first direct conversation since the first few weeks before the waragrees to several prisoner swaps, but has made little progress in the ceasefire.
Ukraine’s position has softened a little. It was once an article of Kiev’s faith that it would not agree to the end of the war until the Russian army was expelled from Ukraine’s fully recognized territory. But now, Ukrainian leaders are pushing for a ceasefire that will leave a large portion of territory under Russian occupation, hoping to recover later. The reality of the battlefield may determine the shift, no matter who the White House is, but Trump is eager to end the war quickly, and Ukraine needs to keep his unrest may intensify.
As for Russia, although Putin may also accept it, as his army is unlikely to overthrow the Ukrainian government altogether, it is not clear that he has already turned Ukraine into a secondary satellite state as requested. Moscow Requirements Ukraine not only abandons its territory Currently, Russia controls other territories that Russia claims but has not yet conquered. Other recent reports require: Internationally recognized Russian territorial claimspolitical neutrality in Ukraine, and restrictions on its military and its access to international military aid. These may be just the greatest negotiating stance, but some Russian observers say Putin is unlikely to move forward.
“The unfortunate reality is that we didn’t really learn much [about Russia’s willingness to compromise]and we are basically in the same position as we were before diplomacy, and may even be a little bit worse.
“In this kind of war, you can win or lose, and if you lose, it’s disastrous for Russia.”
– Andrei Soldatov, Russian journalist and analyst
Since Trump’s Alaska Summit with Putin And his Meeting in Washington Among Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders, much of the discussion in the European capital revolves around Ukraine’s future security assurances, including what it is said to beVery precise planningSupport these guarantees for post-conflict deployment. Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States will provide some support for these guarantees, although not “boots. ”
However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stressed that Russia Hope to be part of the discussion on safety assuranceit hopes that its ally China will be one of the guarantors and must have no foreign troops deployed to Ukraine. Therefore, all discussions on what forms these assurances will take are still somewhat theoretical.
“The whole question about foreign soldiers on Ukrainian soil is absolutely unlimited for the Kremlin,” said Andrei Soldatov, a Russian journalist and analyst at the European Center for Policy Analysis. Putin “will fight until the last soldier fights it.”
Putin repeatedly said “root cause“The conflict needs to be resolved, he means NATO expansion and Overthrow Ukrainian-Russian-backed government in 2014,he Described as a coup supported by the West. “In other words, it’s not just “Land exchange. ”
Soltov said the conflict was a time for Russian leaders to see the Soviet Union breakup in the years after the Cold War, and should not be underestimated.
“They think it’s a war of survival, not only about Ukraine, but also about the West,” he said. “In this kind of war you can win or lose, and if you lose, it’s disastrous for Russia.”
That being said, Russia is very willing to continue participating in the negotiations because simply because Trump has been reluctant to have any serious consequences for Russia, as long as it is nominally involved in the peace process.
“Putin believes he has solved the Trump issue,” John Herbst, a former U.S. Commissioner in Ukraine, told Vox. “Trump allowed him to do nothing to cross his red line.”
Does Putin have a breakthrough point?
If Putin doesn’t actually want to reach an agreement just to make a solidarity, can he force him through greater pressure?
In recent days, the government has announced tariffs on India (White House spokesman Karoline Leavitt calls them “sanctions”, which is a A pretty incitement tenure in New Delhi) As evidence that the United States is seriously calling for pressure. The road to peace has at least partly passed through New Delhi,” Trump’s trade adviser Peter Navarro says.
It’s a strange position: indeed, India now buys a lot of oil from Russia, but China Buy morethe government is very quiet about this. Anyway, tariffs seem to have pushed India is closer to China Instead of staying away from Russia.
Bilateral trade has little talk about trade between the United States and Russia, so Trump’s preferred pressure strategy (tariff) is not suitable for pressure Putin. Experts say the United States can take other steps, such as “Shadow Fleet” tanker Violate wwestern restrictions or seize Russian crude oil Russia’s freeze sovereign assets.
Trump also suggests Eliminate restrictions on remote strikes in Ukraine Enter Russia, Russia’s domestic energy supply. He called Biden incompetent because Ukraine was not allowed to “strike back”, which was obviously It’s not what he was saying at the time.
But Samuel Charap, a former State Department worker at Rand Corporation, was skeptical and asked to call for pressure.
“The most important thing is that there is no reasonable pain threshold that we can cross, which will allow Putin to fundamentally change his attitude towards Ukraine,” he said.
What Can Probably the leverage provided to Ukraine is even greater than any new weapon system, capability or sanctions program, which is just confidence that U.S. aid will continue. There are some short Weapons suspended delivery to Ukraine In addition to intelligence sharing and intelligence sharing since Trump took office, it has been reported recently that the Pentagon has Stop Ukraine from using long-range missiles.
for the time being, As long as Europe pays for weaponsas long as Nobel is coming a peace deal worth a sum, Trump seems to be inclined to not give up on Ukraine altogether. (his The Vice President may be another story.
“From a Russian perspective, I do think there is still some hope that Trump will be frustrated by the process and then walk away,” Kendall-Taylor of the center said the new U.S. security.
Even if the conversation leads to peace, it will take some time
Rand’s charm has been a major supporter of the negotiations since the early days of the war. He noted that negotiations on an armistice to end the Korean War and negotiations on the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland took hundreds of meetings. Although Trump attaches great importance to holding tee summits between himself, Putin and Zelenskyy, details of these agreements are often eliminated in a few months by many low-level officials in fewer high-profile meetings. (Trump staff cuts Thinned Ranking Russian experts from the State Council, the National Security Council and the CIA.
“We have seen Russia willing to speak,” Chalap said. “Whether they are willing to end the war on conditions acceptable to Ukraine, we have not fully tested this claim,” he stressed that testing this claim would take time and patience.
But how much time does Ukraine have?
Russia continues to do it Stable growth on the battlefieldalthough slowly wear out at a shocking casualty rate. Unfortunately, Russia just has more people and supplies to put into the battle, and despite North Korean soldiers and ammunition, it still doesn’t care about international support. The Alaska Summit was followed by Beijing shindig last week It shows that the efforts to isolate Putin internationally is collapsing. Despite efforts to increase production in the United States and Europe, Russia is Still producing more ammunition More than Western competitors, though Reasonable attention Granting high-tech drones – remains a key variable in a long and fascinating war of churn like this. Even with the talks, Russia has only strengthened its efforts to take a position on the battlefield and cause damage to Ukrainian cities.
Past examples also show that Putin may have time on his side. A widely cited study was published in 1998 The war between democracies and dictators In the 19th and 20th centuries, once the conflict reached the mark of 18 months, “the superiority of combat will pass to the authoritarian state.” Why? Leaders do not pay much attention to public opinion, are less concerned about casualties, and are able to turn the entire domestic economy into a war machine Positive to have advantages.
The war passed this 24 months ago. Although Putin may eventually reach an agreement, it is likely that he has not completed it.
