As the prospect of market tanks and higher prices becomes more real, the future of President Donald Trump’s winning league may also be on the cliff.
Trump’s tariff policy is not popular with the US public Generally speakingeven more unpopular among voters who give him the impetus needed to win the 2024 election.
They include young voters, voters of color and independents – they prioritize economic concerns and prices of goods that are enough to bet during their second Trump term. These voters are not necessarily stubborn magazine fans – some, for example, are not necessarily conservative in their thinking, but are dissatisfied with the pandemic’s status quo and the Democrats’ handling of inflation. Trump and Republican candidates promised that they were at a lower price and these voters hoped they could deliver.
As the president has been focusing on immigration, breaking down government bureaucracy and threatening delays in tariffs, these voters, like the American public, have consistently said they want him to focus on reducing costs and reducing inflation, rather than overdoing inflation.
Over the past few weeks, polls have shown that voters think Trump isn’t focused enough on their top issue: the economy.
The data also showed clear warning signs that by mid-term next year, Trump and Republicans: non-Maga voters diversify and expand their winning 2024 league risk at risk of defection and put this general majority future at uncertainty.
Trump’s voters outside the base lose support for the economy
Although he was more popular than that during his presidency in 2017, Trump has been steadily losing support from the U.S. public as his perception of economic management worsened.
Immigration policy remains his power–just ended Half of the country’s support His harsh, restrictive approach. But the perceptions of how he handles work, the economy and inflation have been steadily declining.
Among Trump’s voters, there is a distinct gap between his core base (mostly white, educated) magazine supporters and less ideological, more diverse (although smaller) Republican voters who do not consider themselves Maga (YouGov poller asks respondents whether they identify them as Maga followers).
Financial Times data reporter John Byrne Moldoc Captured this dynamic last weeknoting that “the economic disconnect between Trump’s magazine on the one hand and the broader conservative Republicans on the other” in the poll data shared with him by YouGov.
This suggests that astronomy-based approval of the narrow subset of the Magma Republicans continues to ratify the president even after the last 10 weeks of tangible unrest. But a large number of other voters who supported Trump in November are quickly deteriorating his economic policies and overall record.
This disconnect is huge in terms of “employment and economy” and “inflation/price”, with Maga Base’s recognition of Trump’s work performance not really playing out between February and April, while Trump’s recognition is in a dilemma in the “Other Trump 2024 Voters” category.
The key driving force behind all this? Trump’s tariff policy is specific. Among all American adults, these tariffs are indeed unpopular, and respondents specifically believe they will worsen inflation. YouGov’s The latest polls on April 2 – Trump’s hype to announce his universal tariffs so-called liberation day shows this – although it’s still early, we’ll get more data points in the days to come. More than half of American adults say they “some” or “strongly” disapprove of tariffs. Only 34% said they approved a net negative rating of nearly 20 points.
and More than two-thirds Among the respondents, they said they expect the prices of daily commodities to increase, including 47% of Republicans.
Trump broke down the numbers with voters who made profits last year, which is equally shocking for the Republicans:
- Latino and Black voters: Trump has made extraordinary gains with Latino voters who had the most persuasive economic news last year and has made more modest gains with black voters, especially black men. But two groups of voters Overwhelming Tariff announcement against Trump: Black Americans oppose by 23 points, while Latinos oppose by 30 points based on YouGov’s vote. They also expect prices to rise: 63% of black respondents say so, while 66% of Latino respondents do. And in Other YouGov pollsThese respondents overwhelmingly believe that the Trump administration will focus on applying for tariffs: 73% of black adults and 58% of Latinos say so.
These are groups of the American public who specifically met the price increase during Biden’s presidency and are likely to focus on the same shift in affordability during Trump’s tenure. Although the general public has experienced the shackles of inflation, the relative youth of these populations, as well as their concentration in more expensive urban centers, both of which are in the More sensitive Rich in hiking and experience Tough economic headwind From 2021 to 2023.
- Young people (especially men): According to the exit poll, Kamala Harris still provides thorough support for what happened to young voters in the 2024 election. Seems more A better explanation. In 2024, young voters clearly believe Trump has less taboos than this era in 2020 or 2016, and Democrats have never found a strong reaction to the economy, inflation and prices.
But now these voters seem to have the buyer’s remorse. Of all ages, this youngest cohort seems to be the least uncertain about how to view Trump’s tariffs, but most Still disapproved: 48% have negative views on tariffs compared to most millennials and Xers.
Nevertheless, young people are also price-sensitive, and rising prices will also affect them. ((The legend of Nintendo Switch 2 – This has been postponed and may be more costly due to tariffs – probably just the beginning.
- Independents: Finally, last year, Trump achieved great gains with independent voters, almost allocated with Harris based on data sources (3-6 points Harris’ advantage in 2024, or about a 7-10 point shift from 2020). However, these voters also put negative views on the tariffs: More than half oppose them, and more than two-thirds expect them to raise prices. one Similar shares It is believed that Trump has paid too much attention to the tariffs.
All of this shows that tariffs are indeed a wedge issue for voters Trump needed in his tiny popular bill last year and helped him win.
They were contrary to what he expected from his presidency: more economic uncertainty, higher prices, and possible job losses.
