President Donald Trump decides to stop the United States Military aid to Ukraine It is one of the most eye-catching foreign policy changes in the United States in recent years. Not only did the United States effectively change aspects in a continuing war, but it also seemed to abandon decades of consistency with European and Russian aggression, effectively occupying the Russian side in a larger geopolitical struggle.
For some, Trump’s move will come as no surprise. From the moment he defended Russia’s human rights record, he pointed out that the United States is not “So innocentUntil he served as President of Russia Vladimir Putin’s discourse on his intelligence agenciesOver the years, his remarks gave him enough ammunition to portray him as an opponent of the Russian leader’s “puppet”, Hillary Clinton He was once famously described.
But despite Russia’s detailed evaluation of his representatives in the 2016 election, and despite his frequent emotional expressions of Putin, Trump’s actual policies during his tenure were not particularly “pro-Russian”. After Trump’s first inauguration in 2017, Literal champagne toast on the floor The Russian parliament celebrates a new golden age expected to be a relationship between the United States and Russia. But the beautiful feeling is short-lived.
Even if there is anything Some Trump officials may promise the KremlinTrump is not right Russia, in fact, dozens of new.
Trump administration signs javelin sales Ukraine’s anti-tank weapons After the Obama administration declined, 2019. After the full invasion of these weapons in 2022, the effectiveness of these weapons against Russian armored vehicles makes They are almost mythical in Ukraine. Trump’s More hawkish senior officials and Member of Congress Although the president has his own preferences, he is usually able to abide by Russian policies.
By the 2020 election Consensus in Moscow It’s not that much different for Trump, and no matter who is in the White House, relationships will continue to be bad. This time, the Russian leader responded more Cautiously re-election to TrumpThe Foreign Ministry said the anti-Russian consensus in both parties dominated Washington, and they did not expect the new president to change that.
But that’s Before the events of the past few weeksIt was a reboot of the direct high-level dialogue between the United States and Russia (effectively ending the country’s cold shoulders of diplomacy received from the West since 2022); Trump repeated the Kremlin’s talk view that Ukraine, not Russia, started the war, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a unelected “dictator.” Then TV humiliation On Friday, Trump and Vice President JD Vance’s Zelenskyy were in the Oval Office, which included “hate” against Putin for Ukrainian leaders.
It is reported that in addition to stopping military aid to Ukraine, the White House also Ask the State Council The Ministry of Finance and Finance has developed a list of sanctions against Russian entities and individuals, including oligarchs, who may be raised in the coming days. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth Already gone To instruct the U.S. Cyber Command to stop all plans against Russia, including offensive cyber operations.
In short, the “pro-Russian” Trump foreign policy that many countries have never achieved in their first semester is now here. However, it is not clear what Russia itself will do for the incident.
There is no reason to delve into conspiracy or “game theory” to explain Trump’s behavior. Trump may really think that support for Ukraine is a bad investment in the United States, with the importance of foreign policy agencies to the alliance and NATO allowing other countries to ride the U.S. military power for free.
As analyst and Eurasia founder Ian Bremmer wrote, for the president, individuals are often political: “Trump gets along with Putin personally, and Trump (correctly) most European leaders don’t like him or respect him.”
Still, “It is really unimaginable that American leaders will act in this way,” said Sasha de Vogel, a political scientist and Russian expert at the University of North Carolina. “It’s so weird to see the leaders of the United States celebrate Putin and make decisions that directly play a role, that’s not our ally, that’s not our ally, and that we think we are their enemies. I want to see Russia try to take advantage of everything they can.”
Trump’s foreign policy supporters sometimes disagree Regarding whether the new definition with Russia should be part of the overall layoffs of U.S. military force, or a shift toward resolving a more serious threat to China, or even possibly Split Moscow away from alliance with Beijing Use a reverse Nixon manipulation.
Either way, nothing can stop Trump from embracing Putin this time.
Since Trump’s first term Pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian sentiment is already widespread In Trump’s base – even if it remains the few positions in the country.
As for the first time, his government had officials who either shared his views on Russia (like Vance) or like Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz Have a developing perspective Match with the president.
Some of the most determined Russian hawks in Congress after Zelenskyy’s dress Fully support for the president or Quiet.
After Trump was elected, some Ukrainians and some Europeans Pointing to Trump’s first record As evidence, he would not completely reverse U.S. support for Ukraine and might even get rid of some cautious approaches to military aid, who sometimes get frustrated by competitive governments. To be fair, some of Trump’s own statements were given to Reasons to believe this.
But now, the leaders of the continent seem to be Draw a conclusion The 80-year-old alliance between the United States and Europe faces the first Soviet Union and is no longer occupied by Russia. During his first term, Trump Threat to pull the United States Leave NATO completely. This time it seems entirely possible that he has a good attitude towards this threat.
Even leaders like Keir Starmer in the UK insist that the United States isNot an unreliable ally“It is obvious that any Western head of state may receive the same treatment that Zelenskyy received in the White House and that Europe could be incorporated into Europe to keep Ukraine fighting on.
But this might have the trickiest time to figure out how to deal with the US pro-Russian tendency is Russia itself.
Will Russia win?
Currently, the Russian leader seems to be surprised by the changes in his wealth in Washington.
“If you told me three months ago that these were the president of the United States, I would laugh out loud,” Dmitry Medvedev, the former president and current social media troll, said. Tweeted after Trump’s description Zelenskyy as a “dictator”. Medvedev after Oval Office Meeting Then“Trump told the truth to the face of the cocaine clown for the first time. The shapeless pig finally got a solid slap in the face.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov uses a slightly sober language Tell the state TV“The new administration is rapidly changing all foreign policy allocations. This is largely aligned with our vision.”
A poll released on Friday Levada Center in Russia Shows that public support for the war is now 80%, the highest level since March 2022 ((Popular polls in an authoritarian country should be conducted with a grain of salt, but at least there is an observable trend line.)
“It’s incredible good news for Putin,” De Vogel said. The Russian president has suffered some headwinds due to high casualties, difficulty in recruiting and overheating economy, but the Russian president shows no sign of interest. This could make him less serious negotiations with the United States, Europe or anyone else to end the war. “If Putin can continue to push his advantage now, there is no reason Putin is rushing to negotiate for the ceasefire.”
While Russia can be expected to make the most of the current moment, experts say they are less likely to see this moment as a mature geopolitical readjustment.
Andrei Soldatov, a UK-based Russian journalist and security analyst, told Vox about the “very suspicious” of the United States. “Honestly, they don’t believe in long and lasting peace or new arrangements for European security. Tactically, they will do their best, but they think they are fighting the West and Trump won’t change that.”
exist Recent columnsIt can be said that Russia’s leading government foreign policy intellectuals can be said that compared with the Yalta conference, Russia’s leading foreign policy intellectuals can be said that just 80 years ago, when allies met to design a new security order for Europe, laying the foundation for becoming the Iron Curtain.
Can Trump and Putin follow in the footsteps of Franklin Roosevelt and Joseph Stalin? Lukyanov wrote, there was almost nothing. “Trump’s approach to trading prioritizes monetary interests and situational advantages over comprehensive long-term solutions. His understanding of the agreement is traded and lacks the vision required for a treaty based on the Yalta-scale.”
Furthermore, he wrote: “A’ conceptWorld Order“As the West understands, it is losing relevance,” future agreements are more likely to be limited, short-term and traded.
Additionally, Russian leaders may feel like they have seen the movie before. There are some traditions that the US president takes office and hopes to establish a better relationship with Putin. In 2001, George W. Bush (George W.The feeling of his soul,” found him trustworthy.
Barack Obama has the famous “reset” – With props – Try to find areas of common concern and cooperation. Of course, Trump had his own frustration attempts to find common ground with Putin during his first term. Joe Biden calls Putin “Killer“In his early years as president, although he was able to Negotiating a key weapons control agreement Putin and Ukraine were before the collapse of relations with Putin.
The second time the Trump administration’s pro-Russian tendency is much more intense than any of these proposals, but also seems to be less. Trump’s Initially cautious about Ukraine After calling Putin, it seemed to change overnight.
As for Putin, he might need to see more before he can believe it.
