President Donald Trump vows to expel 1 million undocumented immigrants Every year outside the United States. So far, he has not achieved this goal, probably nearby As of August 200,000.
Despite this, the Trump administration continues to deport. Depend on Open anti-immigration officials like Stephen MillerThe White House has increased funds for immigration and customs enforcement to Record levelmasked agents deployed in the cities and towns in charge Achieving arrest quotaand are conducting new deals with countries such as South Sudan for so-called Deportation from third countries.
The unexpected face of Trump’s crackdown has become Kilmar Abrego GarciaHe was a Maryland father and an El Salvador citizen who was wrongly deported to a large currency in El Salvador in March. Abrego Garcia has returned to the country and is now fighting federal smuggling charges in Uganda with deportation orders. this Chaotic cases Strategies against Abrego Garcia and the Trump administration are symbolizing a larger war on immigration that could lead to a smaller, poorer America.
according to Derek Thompsonwriter, podcaster and co-author Richthis crackdown could lead to “huge” changes in the U.S. population and economy. Trump’s “injustice” strategy may backfire in the next election.
Here are Thompson and Today, I explained Host Sean Rameswaram, edited as length and clarity. There are more in the full podcast, so listen Today, I explained Wherever you get podcasts, including Apple Podcast,,,,, Pandoraand Spotify.
Derek, You wrote on the substitution recently The United States is on the cliff of “historic (if suspicious) achievement”, which of course sounds ominous. Tell us what we should achieve.
Well, throughout U.S. history, there is only known population growth in the United States. The United States grew up in the Civil War and we grew up through the Spanish flu. We grew up in two world wars and despite a million deaths, we grew up. But President Donald Trump is on a cliff of real history, as you said, accomplishments in 2025.
It is definitely possible that the U.S. population will decline for the first time. And the math here is very simple. There are only two ways to grow population. There is something called natural increase, namely birth minus death, and net immigration, i.e. immigrants minus departing immigrants.
Last year, more than deaths were born About 500,000 people. This means that if net immigration drops by more than 500,000, the United States can shrink for the first time in history. And several demographers are predict The net immigration may be negative 500,000 or more than that negative. This means that the United States has become a shrinking country for the first time in history.
Is this because we don’t actually know if this will happen?
Yes. We don’t know if this will happen. I’ve talked William Freywho is a truly well-known demographer and a senior fellow at the Brookings Agency, said, “Do you think the U.S. is likely to shrink this year?” He said, “It is certainly possible. My bet in early 2025 is that growth will be positive, but very slow. But, of course, the population will likely shrink this year.”
So one possibility is that I was wrong and the United States will not shrink this year. I do think population growth will be very low. But I think the easiest reason we don’t talk about this is that I don’t think people are doing basic math here. First, it increases naturally, birth minus death, very low. The fertility in the United States is very low. I’ve written a lot. And second place Low net immigration Because of all these deportations and all the immigrants from the Trump administration, even attempting to enter the United States first.
You have a lot of thought about shrinking birth rate. How do things like the story of Kilmar Abrego Garcia fit into what is likely to happen to the country’s population right now?
Well, over the past few years, immigration politics has obviously been swinging. Donald Trump’s first semester has some Very cruel policy. Joe Biden then responded by liberating immigration and liberalized asylum laws into cruel policies. This created the highest immigration years in American history. I think in 2023 and 2024, we have more than 23 to 2.5 million immigrants into the United States. This is extraordinary. Oppose that immigration surge. This rebound is part of the reason why Trump is now president. Trump has been swaying his pendulum, not only closing the borders but also closing these additional legal deportations. These—in many cases, in many cases—deportation scares immigrants, first sending ice into all these cities and rounding up people they think are not like Americans.
But what is really historic is that fertility rates are low enough that there is no stable immigration and the United States will shrink soon. Most demographers believe that the United States will not shrink until the 2070s or 2080s. Donald Trump’s immigration policy could bring the moment when the U.S. contracts 60 years ago.
You wrote on the alternative, how this will affect three basic departments of life in the United States: food, housing, health care. Please, indulge in us.
Well, there is almost no food in life, and the right to shelter and medicine is more basic. Therefore, it is very important that immigration plays a disproportionate role in each person. I will start with farming. Two-thirds of agricultural workers are immigrants. Without new immigrants arriving, the farm will struggle in many ways. They may have difficulty finding a replacement and then wages rise for those working in agriculture. This is really good for people working in agriculture, but it means it is more expensive for people who buy produce, milk or meat at the grocery store. And we’re already dealing with it Higher inflation.
“Many Americans obviously don’t like the record-breaking era of mass immigration under Joe Biden, but I think they may hate the record-breaking era of deportation even more.”
Housing: Immigration accounts for about 50% to 60% of roofers, painters, drywalls, installers and plaster. We need immigrants to build houses. In fact, if you look around the country, 30 to 40% of the construction workforce is foreign-born. Almost all the largest housing markets – Florida, Georgia, Texas, Nevada, California and New York – are heavily dependent on foreign labor.
So sometimes I say, “The United States is going to shrink this year.” People say, “Oh, thank God. It’s too crowded everywhere. Immigrants are fighting for houses, they’re fighting for jobs. It’s going to be great for the country.” Well, guess what happens if you don’t have enough people to build a house? You don’t have enough homes. What will happen to housing prices? They don’t descend. They rise because of shortage of houses.
Finally, last: health care.
We are an aging country. We need more clinicians, we need more caregivers. In a world with lower immigration, our clinicians will reduce and reduce caregivers.
This is one of the things that surprised me the most in my report: the heavy immigration of the American medical workforce. Foreign-born accounts for 25 to 27% of U.S. physicians and surgeons; one-sixth of all working in the health care sector is Born abroad. So if you have an aging country and you have fewer people to take care of them, you may have higher prices and longer boundaries in the hospital, and fewer people are your sick parents, your grandparents, your uncle’s home health assistant. Again, I see a major problem, a major problem arises in a world where we have fewer immigrants.
Have you seen the Trump administration attempt to oppose its immigration policies through the impact other policies have on the economy? Do they know these pain points?
There are certainly some people in the Trump administration who want a U.S. with fewer people and of course a U.S. with fewer non-white people. I mean, it’s obvious. I’m more interested in how Donald Trump will use immigration policies as a weapon.
One of the things that interests me the most is Donald Trump’s theory of economic power. As far as I know, everything he did for him has three steps formulas. Step 1: Create pain. Step 2: Propose to eliminate pain. Step 3: Ask for tribute. How to use immigration policy in this way? Well, restrictive immigration policies are painful for cities, states, companies, and industries that rely on immigration.
I think he will ask certain cities, states and CEOs to pay tribute to him in some way in exchange for him specifically targeting the newly-bowed people. So you can imagine some hospitals or cities struggling with population growth in 2026 or 2027 and then go Donald Trump and say, “Can you change your immigration policy?” Maybe he will change your immigration policy – only when they offer him some reward. The stagnant politics in the United States can be very interesting.
Do you think that if what’s bad in the coming years is that if people attribute negative economic conditions to these policies, then we might have another shift and reverse what happened in the past six months?
I absolutely do it. Many Americans obviously don’t like the record-breaking era of mass immigration under Joe Biden, but I think They may hate it There are even more eras of deportation recorded. In terms of immigration policy, it is difficult to truly reach the temperature of the median voter. But if I have to do my best, I want to say that American voters want orderly active immigration.
