The weather forecast you see on TV or the severe storm alert you get from the app is powered by federal science agency that is consistent with some of the most dramatic cuts proposed by the Trump administration to date.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) hires 12,000 employees worldwideMore than half of them are scientists and engineers. NOAA Operation 18 satellites and 15 ships And there is one Budget of $6.8 billion. Their job is to study the sky, the ocean, the fish, track how they change and predict what happens to them. NOAA’s work is crucial for aviation, fishing, climate research and offshore oil and gas exploration, especially when modeling weather.
“Even if you don’t know what they do, you and your family and friends are all dependent on the people in NOAA.” Jane LubchencoLeading NOAA under President Barack Obama, he wrote to Vox in an email.
Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) staff have been targeting probation workers to lay off jobs across the federal government. There are around 216,000 workers with this statusclose to 10% of the total federal labor force. Thousands of workers have Dismissal in the federal government Between the National Park Service and the Department of Energy and other departments. About 75,000 employees accepted the postponement of resignation.
However, NOAA’s potential exceeds that. CBS News NOAA employees were told to prepare for halving their staff and their budget was reduced by 30%. A source that asked for anonymity within the agency, because they had no right to talk to the press, told Vox that certain weather offices in NOAA would be eliminated completely.
“There will be some disruption and decline in the quality of service because we will have understaffed offices. This is a huge risk to weather services.” Timothy GallaudetDuring President Donald Trump’s first term, he served as an acting executive at NOAA. “Our weather satellites, which are critical to public safety, can also be an issue for any disruption to their maintenance and operations.”
Despite its valuable work, NOAA is at a broader effort to narrow down the intersection of governments, which is a Ideological struggle on climate change,may be Personal dissatisfaction With the President himself.
As extreme weather lands in areas with an increasing population, cuts may have far-reaching impacts on the U.S. economy and Americans’ safety. “The great things that NOAA does affect every American in a positive way every day,” Gallaudet said. “Everything will slow down and have May stop.”
Why major climate and weather conditions are making depth cuts
NOAA stares here on Earth when NASA looks at the stars. But unlike NASA, NOAA is not an independent agency. It is under the protection of the Ministry of Commerce, currently Howard LutnikThe former CEO of financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald, who was confirmed on February 18.
The Department of Commerce’s mission is to promote trade and economic growth in the United States, so it seems odd that it operates a scientific institution, especially one that makes up 60% of its budget. However, historically, NOAA’s research is By commercial performance Especially the fishing industry and maritime trade. Even today, NOAA’s work Real-time mapping of seabed and ocean currents The transport of safe travel is ensured around the port, which will contribute The U.S. economy is $5.4 trillion each year. Fisheries Management Support Nearly $10 billion in fishing sector. NOAA’s forecasting efforts through the National Weather Service are crucial for farmers, event planners, and for generating life-saving alerts ahead of extreme weather events. NOAA also conducts basic scientific research on climate change.
These functions have caused anger among some people in the Trump administration. Project 2025The Heritage Foundation has specially called for the removal of climate change systems from government decisions. Training Videos Get in Project 2025 ProPublicaAn official in Trump’s first term said the future Conservative president “will have to eliminate the absolutely ubiquitous climate change reference.”
Then it makes sense that NOAA will be a mature goal. Project 2025 Require NOAA “It was demolished, many of its functions were phased out, sent to other agencies, privatized or placed under national and regional control.” It describes the six major offices of NOAA, which are “climate change alerts” One of the major drivers of the industry and therefore harmful to future U.S. prosperity. “As for the National Weather Service, it should “fully commercialize its forecasting business.”
Throughout the government, many Specific goals proposed in the 2025 project Has been deleted from the list. However, during the confirmation hearing, Lutnik said he Disagree with the proposal for the 2025 project Demolition of NOAA.
Trump also directly ran into NOAA during his first term. In 2019, Hurricane Dorian It reached level 5 and was heading towards the Gulf Coast. trump card Posted on Twitter That Alabama is one of the most likely states to be attacked, but the Birmingham office of the National Weather Service replied that there will be No hurricane impact on the country.
Then, in the Oval Office briefing on September 4, 2019, Trump introduced the National Weather Service map of Hurricane Dorian Road, which looked like a cycle caused in the mark to cover southern Alabama. This episode is called Sharpiegateleading to some battles within the NOAA as professionals overturned the political appointments that hoped the agency would confirm the Trump statement. Craig McLean, the acting chief scientist at NOAA, Forced to quit his position.
McLean told Vox that the incident was part of a broader political effort to bending science to Trump’s agenda. “When Trump arrived for the first time [during the first term]they forced me to change the direction of my climate plan. “McLean said. “The frustration is that Trump people can’t do the job. The climate program survives and continues to advocate obvious scientific truths. But now, I hope they just started the blow program with a fool and a sledgehammer. This is my concern. Climate is a big goal. ”
NOAA does have room for improvement
Former NOAA official said the agency has some long-running friction points that are worth scrutiny and could benefit from certain strategic restructuring, cuts and privatization.
The biggest problem is that NOAA is under the wrong department. “The political appointees of the Ministry of Commerce did not appreciate what NOAA has done very well,” Gallaudet said. “To be honest, that’s the biggest pain point. They really just don’t know us very much. Every When we can go straight into the White House, that is when we will advocate for moving forward.”
NOAA is unlikely to leave the business sector anytime soon, but senior political officials with the ability to master NOAA’s mission and its value to the American public can be smooth out in bureaucratic quarrels.
NOAA can also benefit from working with the private sector. Private weather forecasts are now US $10 billion industrybut these companies oppose the full commercialization of the National Weather Service. Accuweather is a company that provides weather forecast services, especially for the proposals for the 2025 project and said it cannot replace everything NOAA does. “The authors of ‘2025’ all use us as an example, forecasts and warnings provided by private sector companies, without the knowledge or permission of Accuweather.” Last year’s statement.
But by working with companies like Accuweather, NOAA can expand its forecasting impact and put important alerts in the hands of more people who may be affected by bad weather, and tailor them to businesses with the greatest threat. Gallaudet noted that NOAA is constantly accumulating a large number of weather indicators that inform local meteorologists, app developers and farmers, but the series is getting clumsy. Private companies can help the agency automate data collection and optimize its analytical software. Machine learning tools developed by tech companies can also help NOAA improve its predictions.
Another problem is that NOAA’s extensive research portfolio unintentionally overlaps with scientific projects from other institutions such as NASA, the Department of Energy and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (USGS) to create unnecessary redundancy.
“When I was at NOAA, I went to some shipwrecks in North Carolina – informally my entertainment – I met USGS biologists diving with me. It turns out he worked on stfish.” Lordett said. “We have two [sturgeon] NOAA’s laboratory. Our stfish scientists have never spoken to USGS stfish scientists. There aren’t many st fish in the country! You would think our scientists would work together more effectively, but not. ”
On the other hand, NOAA can still invest more in some research areas, especially in the social sciences. Meteorologists extend the advance time of weather forecasts, but how People parse and act on this information Becoming a limitation. The early warning of the tornado will not help if the recipient does not seek asylum immediately, or if they try to squeeze into the last-minute grocery store. Getting attention to warnings and taking precautions is a key challenge.
“The people of the Department of Commerce of the Democratic and Republican governments told us that NOAA does not do social science, which shows their ignorance, and I would say boring rejection of the importance of this task,” McLean said. “During my tenure,” he said. , We worked very hard to open the door and start spending on social sciences to understand how people respond to these predictions and the tools we use to make predictions.”
Before the actual impact of climate change, it must be the top priority of the institution. For example, as the average temperature rises, fish stocks migrate toward the poles, forcing fishermen to adapt. “Today’s Maine lobster will be Canadian lobster tomorrow,” McLean said. As the weather reaches a greater extreme, more people and property are hurt, Disasters become very expensive. Careful investment in tools to monitor and predict these events and dismantle them will leave the country vulnerable to more expensive disasters in the future.
