Editor’s Note: Justin Lynch is a researcher and analyst in Washington, D.C. He is the co-author of the bookSudan’s unfinished democracy. “The views expressed here are his own. Read More comments In CNN.
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Four years ago, almost one day, the Sudanese people celebrated the revolution after overthrowing long-time dictator Omar al-Bashir. Now the faces of East African countries Possibility of complete collapse Similar to the chaos we see today in Yemen or Libya.
Competitors’ military factions began fighting each other in the Khartoum capital on Saturday. Both sides fought to control U.S. airports, bases and military compounds. Violence quickly poured into the streets and across the country.
About 45 million Sudanese were taken hostages and could not take risks due to fear of being killed in the firefight. At least 180 people Death in the battle, including three World Food Program Humanitarian workers.
The conflict puts two painful rivals and their powerful armed forces against each other. On one side is the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) led by General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan. On the other side is the paramilitary group rapid support (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as hemeti.
There is no good side to this conflict. Both have been charged with long-term human rights violations.
How did Sudan go from abandoning autocratic rule a few years ago to establishing a fledgling democracy?
On April 11, 2019, Sudan’s long-time dictator Bashir Being overthrown. Bashir’s dismissal was caused by months of protests by the Sudanese trade union, which prompted the SAF and RSF to launch a military coup. Both Burhan and Hemeti teamed up to remove their former boss.
This is a moment of hope, because democracy has hope. I remember walking around in a “sitting,” a huge liberty carnival in central Khartoum, where protesters blocked demands for change. It is electricity.
However, social movements such as the protest coalitions, such as the Sudan Professionals Association (SPA), often have difficulty turning the momentum of demonstrations into real political forces.
The reason is partly structural. Social movements such as spas are often based on grassroots activism. A dictator can arrest the leaders of one or two organizations, but not the entire country.
But once the dictator is overturned, these social movements often struggle to build on the necessary leadership in the political negotiations that take place. Like many other movements, Sudan’s protesters cannot convert mobilization into political power.
Shortly after Bashir’s fall in April 2019, civilian leaders negotiated with the military on the future of the country. There is no uniform match between the two sides. As a result of these leadership challenges, the pro-democracy forces strive to bargain with the disciplined army.
Any motivation for advocates during negotiations was eliminated in June 2019 when RSF soldiers Violent dispersion Sitting in meditation. More than 100 people were killed.
After the June massacre and leadership challenges, Transitional Constitution Signed in August 2019, providing most of the powers in Sudan to the SAF and RSF. Burhan is the head of state, and Hemeti is in an elevated political position. The election was promised in 2022, but few people believe they will actually happen.
The transition period began in August 2019 and I interviewed Abdalla HamdokThe Civilian Prime Minister was a book I co-written about the Sudan Revolution. The way the constitution is written means that Hamdock has limited power as prime minister. Burhan is the head of state and wants to retain the power of the SAF.
Hamdok often tells me that revolution is a cycle. The evacuation of Bashir in 2019 was the high point of the revolution, and he believed that his work was to carry out as much reform as possible before the counter-revolutionary trends swept him.
Hamdok found the legacy of 30 years of dictatorship meant that Sudan’s political and economic model was worn down. But Burhan and Hemeti prevented the major reforms Hamdok wanted to do.
Growing up outside violence in Khartoum. Parts of Sudan, such as Darfur, have seen a new round of conflict between races orchestrated by RSF forces. More than 430,000 people Displaced Due to the conflict in Sudan, it is mainly in Darfur.
The soldiers did not hide their atrocities against civilians. I remember drinking tea at my home in Darfur with a soldier allied to the RSF, who explained why he recently participated in the burning of a village by another ethnic group.
The soldier believes his tribe members were killed in a dispute, so the troops intersecting with the RSF’s troops burned down a village that used to be 30,000 people. At least 163 people died.
Tensions between SAF and RSF have increased. Burhan regards Hemeti and his RSF troops as emerging usurpers from Darfur, who have no discipline. Hemeti, on the other hand, believes it is time for Darfur to lead the Sudan.
Hamdok is on the cusp of starting to reverse the economy when Burhan and Saf intervene. As we write in the book “Unfinished Democracy in Sudan,” the potential success of civilian governments is too great for Birhan. October 2021, Hamdok was deleted In a military coup.
The United States and the United Nations have pushed for a worse version of Sudan’s transitional constitution following the October 2021 coup. They argue This is the best way to achieve democracy.
The idea is to start the transition again, but I and many others think it is shortsighted, Not working. Returning to the government led by Burhan is obviously Don’t go and welcome In democracy. If the plan ends in a coup for the first time, why does the second time work?
Some activists stop working with the United States and regard the UN mission as Obstacles to democracy Due to these policies. When I talk to the best American and foreign diplomats, I feel sorry, they also understand that Sudan’s international policies don’t work. They see these flaws, but feel powerless about the objection and are forced to do many levels above them.
Before the conflict broke out this weekend The controversial part Try to unify the international policies of SAF and RSF. The idea is to form an army, but neither Hemeti nor Burhan want to give up the strength they have accumulated.
The plan to unify the military did not work under similar circumstances. yes repeat During the 2013 and 2016 reunification process that occurred in South Sudan, the results were similar to bloodshed. Instead, the faint relationship between Burhan and Hemeti was boiling due to pressure.
The recent “revolutionary” history in countries such as Myanmar, Tunisia, Egypt and Sudan is easy and concludes that they will eventually backfire. I disagree. I learned from Sudanese activists that a country’s political wealth is an active battle.
We can one day hope Sudan sees a dream of democracy come true. But for the moment, the Sudanese people just hope to survive on this day.
The lesson of Sudan is that a revolution is only the beginning of change, not the end.
