Voters in both states vote for the first time since the president was sent in November Donald Trump Back to the White House.
Wisconsin will choose a new justice in the state Supreme Court, which has a majority of 4-3 liberals. Florida is in Rep. Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz.
Threats: Wisconsin abortion, union and voting rights court rulings and the size of the Republican majority in the U.S. House.
So far, Democrats have been counting.
Deviating from the year and special elections is often a low-key business, often giving a greater voice to Democratic-leaning voters during the Trump era.
The first major swing state election in 2025 becomes Trump’s refuge, Musk
President Donald Trump presented the Wrestler’s Medal of Freedom at the White House Oval Office on December 7, 2020
This could earn a liberal victory and a sustained majority in Wisconsin and perform well in the Florida game.
Even so, Republicans love winning both Florida games and Elon Musk Stay competitive in Wisconsin competition.
Whatever happens, it is too early to draw conclusions on either side’s long-term prospects. Voters in the mid-term and beyond look different and will not vote for more than a year and a half.
Wisconsin Supreme Court candidates Brad Schimel and Susan Crawford saw it ahead of the TV debate in Milwaukee on March 12, 2025. (AP Photo/Mori Shi)
Wisconsin
Key Contest
In the state Supreme Court campaign, Dane County Judge Susan Crawford and Walksha County Judge Brad Schimel hope to replace the longest-serving member of the court, Ann Walsh Bradley, who announced in April last year that she would not seek a fortieth term.
Wisconsin Supreme Court The seats are officially nonpartisan, but voters, as well as state parties’ institutions, usually gather after certain candidates based on their judicial philosophy and records.
Crawford has been supported by Democrats and progressives, including this week’s recognition from former President Barack Obama. Schimel has been supported by Republicans and conservatives, including Trump and Elon Musk.
Why it matters
This will be the first sign of the country’s political climate since Trump regained the White House.
The liberal justices won a 4-3 majority in 2023 after winning a seat won by conservative jurists in 2023. Bradley’s retirement gave conservatives the opportunity to take back most of the people before high-profile cases in abortion, union and voting rights.
Turnout and early voting
As of March 1, Wisconsin had more than 3.8 million active registered voters. Voters in the state do not register as parties.
In the spring 2023 election, there were about 1.8 million votes. That was 51% of registered voters at the time, accounting for about 40% of the voting age population.
About 25% of voters vote before Election Day.
As of Monday, more than 674,000 The vote was already voted before Election Day.
Wisconsin Supreme Court candidates Brad Schimel and Susan Crawford debate, held March 12, 2025 in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Mori Shi)
Counties worth paying attention to
In any statewide election in Wisconsin, Democrats tend to win with big profits in Milwaukee-popular counties and Dane (hometown of Madison), while Republicans win with big profits in smaller, more rural counties throughout much of the state.
Republican candidates also tend to rely on strong performances in Milwaukee suburbs Walksha, Ozaki and Washington’s WOW counties, which helps resist democratic advantages in urban areas.
result
The results are expected to be reported shortly after 9 p.m. ET when the polls are closed.
The table for election night ended at 2:30 a.m. ET in the spring 2023 election and at 5:47 a.m. ET in the November election, both exceeding 98% of the total votes.
Narrative
In Wisconsin, the narrative is not automatic, but if the winning voting margin is less than one percentage point, the lagging candidate may ask for one.
Circuit Court Judge Brad Schimel spoke to supporters on March 25, 2025, during a campaign in Jefferson, Wisconsin. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Florida
Key races
Sixth Congress District
The Sixth Congress District is located on the Atlantic coast and includes Daytona Beach. Republican presidential candidates have brought all six counties to the area in the past four presidential elections.
In the old district of Republican Rep. Michael Waltz, the candidates are Republican state Senator Randy Fine and Democrat Josh Weil, a public school educator in Oscola County.
The fine delegates are located in the state Senate district of Brewad County, outside the Palm Coast area seats he hopes to fill. He won the three-person primary on January 28 with Trump’s approval.
Trump moved in 2024 with 65% of the vote. Waltz won about 67% of the vote in his last re-election campaign.
National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Presidents Donald Trump (Gate image)
First Congressional District
First Congress The district borders the Gulf Coast, the westernmost end of Panhaner, Florida. It is home to Pensacola Naval Air Station and Eglin Air Force Base. The region is one of the most reliable Republican regions in the state.
Republican Jimmy Patronis and Democrat Gay Valimont are running for Rep. Matt Gaetz, who resigned from the House last year.
Patronis is the state’s chief financial officer. He was recognized by Trump in a crowded primary. Wallimont is a gun control activist.
Trump received about 68% of the regional votes in 2024, slightly higher than Gates who he received in reelection.
Republican Jimmy Patronis and Democrat Gay Valimont are running for Rep. Matt Gaetz, who resigned from the House last year. (Reuters)
Why do they matter
Control of U.S. housing is not threatened, but the outcome of the special election may give congressional Republicans some room to breathe in a tight room. Republicans have 218 seats, the lowest seat required for most seats. Democrats have 213 seats, and Democratic lawmakers hold two other vacant seats.
Meanwhile, Democrats hope strong fundraising in both regions is a more competitive indicator than the last election five months ago.
Turnout and early voting
Voters’ participation in the presidential election is often much higher than elections held at other times.
As of today, about 205,000 votes have voted in both districts, with Republicans about 53% and Democrats about 33%.
President Donald Trump addressed the media in the Oval Office of the White House. (Reuters/Evelyn Hawkstan)
Counties worth paying attention to
Sixth Congress District
Trump and Waltz performed best in Putnam County, both of whom received about 74% of the vote. By comparison, their worst county is Volusia, where Trump earns 58% of the revenue and Waltz earns about 60%. Waltz has performed well in every county in the area.
First Congressional District
Walton County’s part of District 1 is the most reliable Republicans Among the four counties. By comparison, Escambia is the least Republican, although Trump and Gates still receive 59% and 57% of county votes, respectively.
result
The results of the District 6 are expected to be reported for the first time soon after 7 p.m. ET. The last vote update for the night of the 2024 election was before midnight, with about 99% of the votes counting.
In District 1, expect shortly after 8 pm ET. The 2024 election night table ended at 1:33 am ET, with about 99% of the vote counting.
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Narrative
If the voting profit margin is 0.5% of the total vote or less turnout, the Florida machine narrative is automatic. If the machine narrative results in a turnout of 0.25% or less of the turnout, a manual narrative of overvoting and low voting is required.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
