Put the Nobel Peace Prize a little bit.
President Donald Trump took office and promised a quick end in two wars in Gaza and Ukraine. Compared to Joe Biden, he took a completely different approach to the two conflicts, producing results in some cases.
What he did not do was end any war. In fact, this week, the determination to resolve both conflicts seems to be further than ever.
Gaza’s fragile ceasefire took effect shortly before Trump took office Israel launches air strikes According to the Gaza Ministry of Health, more than 400 people were killed and large-scale ground operations were restored. Hamas also resumes launching rockets into central Israel, and the situation is very fast Return to full-scale war.
Also this week, Trump calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin Effectively rejected the proposed 30-day ceasefire – Ukraine agreed earlier under pressure from the United States. Russia and Ukraine did agree to attacks on each other, but that didn’t stop Large-scale drone attack Attacks on hospitals by both sides, including Russia Only a few hours After the announcement.
The two sides will hold talks in Saudi Arabia next week – through U.S. intermediaries, the Trump team reportedly hopes Move quickly towards a complete ceasefirebut There are still obvious differences Between the negotiation positions of both sides. Therefore, apart from the miracle at the negotiating table, Ukraine’s war does not seem to be closer to a resolution than the January resolution. The war in Gaza seems to be further away from a war.
What does this tell us? First, an obvious but important point is that ending a war is more difficult than starting it. Hamas and Israel still have Intrinsically an incompatible requirement Finally a ceasefire. Putin in his public statement or US intelligence assessmenthe was interested in ending the war with anything other than Ukraine’s surrender.
It is unrealistic to expect any U.S. government to end two tricky foreign wars in the first two months. If Trump complies with that standard, it’s just because he himself suggested during the campaign that he could end the war in Ukraine in “24 hours”, he said his promise this week could be “A little ironic. “It also shows the limitations of Trump’s unpredictable diplomatic style.
A brief explanation of the situation in Gaza and Ukraine
In Gaza, Trump began strong in January, when the incoming presidential team worked with the outgoing Biden administration to secure a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
Biden administration officials and regional governments The Middle East Envoy Steve Witkov, who is credited to Trumpunder Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, put pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to compromise on the pressure that the Biden team has been missing for months.
However, the deal is only the “first phase” of the ceasefire, designed to last for six weeks, during which Israel and Hamas should negotiate a permanent end to hostilities. The first phase saw the release of 33 Israeli hostages and nearly 1,800 Palestinian prisoners, but it expired in early March and there was no deal.
Fundamentally, Israel remains unwilling to agree to any permanent solution that leaves Hamas in place, and is also unwilling to face the Palestinian government that controls striptease as the Biden administration wants. Hamas is reluctant to disarm and is unlikely to give up the rest of the hostages, which are its main source of leverage and may not be affected by the prospect of killing more Palestinian civilians.
Trump, of course, There are other ideasHow F resolves the conflict shows that the United States should have ownership in Gaza, “clean up” its civilian population and redevelop it into a seaside resort.
Therefore, the ceasefire has now effectively eliminated life support. Restart the war allows Netanyahu reconstructs His right-wing government avoided early elections. At least for now, he has All support from the Trump administration. Meanwhile, a brief breath of suffering for the people of Gaza has ended, hoping that the rest of the hostages will darken people.
In Ukraine, about five weeks have passed since Trump conducted direct negotiations with Russia (without Ukraine present), followed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in television public places in the Oval Office, as well as Ukrainian arms and intelligence cooperation with Ukraine. In the eyes of many, the United States Not only changes the way of conflict, but also changes the aspects.
Finally, it is not clear how much has actually changed after a month of drama. The war was as fierce as ever, after a brief pause, The United States resumed delivery of weapons. Recent events may ultimately have a greater impact on U.S.-European relations than during the war: NATO allies are questioning Alliance’s long-term security The guarantees, and the heads of state everywhere are forced to question whether they really want to visit the White House, if there is a risk of getting treatment from Trump and Vice President JD Vance.
It can be said that the Ukrainians agreed to the ceasefire that the Russians refused, and won a rhetorical victory. This could also be conceivable, as well as strengthening the case of Ukrainian sympathy for larger members in the government. Secretary of State Macro Rubio before trading with Moscow Have said “The ball is now in the court in Russia”, “If they refuse, we unfortunately know what the obstacle to peace is.”
But for now Prepare for more concessions Representative to Ukraine. In sharp contrast to his treatment of Zelenskyy, Trump said only positive things Interaction with Putin. New York real estate developer Witkoff became a general diplomat, now the role of Trump in the Middle East and Ukraine, is Drone strikes defending Russia By saying they came before the pause took effect and committed potential U.S.-Russian energy cooperation.
Trump’s “breakdown” diplomacy
Trump’s willingness to break norms and fundamentally change policies sometimes produces diplomatic results.
He reportedly threatened to pull U.S. troops from Syria Give US military leverage for negotiation At least after the fall of the Assad regime, a deal between Kurdish forces in Syria and the country’s new government has temporarily blocked a new deadly conflict.
Trump has been criticized for speaking directly to Putin in Ukraine, and recently made his envoy Negotiate directly with Hamas On the hostage-taking of American citizens. (For a whileNo prerequisites. ”)
Nevertheless, in the case of Ukraine, there is a case that Trump and his officials are just openly acknowledging the Biden team in private admit: Even with our support, Ukraine is unlikely to reoccupy all its territory through military means.
When Trump began talking to Russia in February, RAND analyst and former State Department official Samuel Charap advocated negotiations to end the war, telling me He praises The Trump team and Russia “prove the political will to restore bilateral channels” but added: “I’m worried about them rushing into it without plans on how to handle the war.”
Similarly, in the Gaza Strip, the Trump administration is serving on the ceasefire, and they can enjoy some credibility – but now it seems that it has given up.
“There is a certain advantage that normal practices like the Trump administration are completely unpopular. Written recentlydiscussing the explosion of direct negotiations between the United States and Hamas. “On the other hand, if you want to negotiate complex deals, then strict, knowledge and preparation are also important.”
He said the two attitudes were to reach the initial Gaza ceasefire in total.
Ultimately, the limit of Trump’s approach may be a disconnect from reality. Trump’s The fever dream of AI structure Family at the Gaza beach resort is distracted by developing a practical and feasible plan for Gaza’s future and legitimizing the most extreme goals of Israel’s annexist rights.
Some Trump officials, including National Security Advisor Mike Waltzsuggesting Trump’s ridiculous vision is a pressure strategy to induce regional governments to come up with their own solutions.
But when the Arab government did do this, when it came up with its own (alerably flawed) Gaza reconstruction plan in early March, the White House Reject immediately It adheres to Trump’s vision of the Palestinian purge of the Levantine “Rivera”. and Greenland and CanadaIt seems that Trump is serious about this.
In Ukraine, Trump’s view of the conflict seems to be greatly influenced by Russia itself, or at least in the United States’ sympathizers, including his inaccurate comments, suggests that it was Ukraine that started the war, and Zelenskyy was a very unwelcome “dictator.”
recent, He claimed Ukrainian troops were “completely surrounded” in Kursk Province, Russia, and at risk of being massacred. this Gibbs, whom Putin advocated himself About Kursk, but not US intelligence assessment. (The Ukrainian troops in Kursk have steadily lost the ground but are not surrounded.)
Fundamentally, he has always claimed Putin is interested in ending the war, and although there is no evidence that this is the case, it is just a matter of Ukraine’s cede territory.
Trump’s unpredictable attitude and willingness to break unwritten international diplomatic rules can sometimes help make opponents speak. However, it is difficult to get actual results without participating in the situation.
