With unprecedented deadly military strikes this week Venezuelan drug ship in the Caribbeanit is clear that the United States plans to adopt tactics against terrorist organizations against criminal organizations in Latin America, up to and including a threat of regime change to the government accused of supporting “terrorists.”
This has been a long time. President Donald Trump has Talk about launching missiles in drug labs According to the former assistant, in Mexico until 2020, Discussed the idea of using military forces to oppose the cartel In the campaign. Shortly after taking office, in February, the Trump administration Several criminal groups have been designatedincluding Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTOS) and a specially designated Global Terrorist (SDGT), has placed it in the same legal category as Al Qaeda and ISIS. last month, The New York Times The president signed a secret direction directing the Pentagon to begin using military power against the designated organizations.
Then, on Tuesday, Trump announces The United States has conducted a “dynamic strike” on “Tren de Aragua narcoterrorists”, Kill 11 on board. The strike happened soon after the United States Eight warships were deployed Towards the Caribbean and Pacific Ocean around South America and Central America, which is an unusually large amount of military power in the region.
Trump administration officials suggest more strikes may occur. The government also accused Nicolas Maduro of controlling Tren de Aragua in Venezuela, a fierce claim.
For his Maduro, he is a long-time American opponent, Accused The United States is seeking “government change” in Venezuela. U.S. officials have not completely denied this, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth calling it a “presidential decision” and a Trump official Tell Axios“It’s 105% of Narco’s terrorism, but if Maduro is no longer in power, no one will cry.”
To sum up, the Trump administration’s new approach could mark a major shift beyond The 50-year “drug war” in the United States,“Its relations with Latin America and the militarization of broad policies is increasing.
The issue surrounding the strike
Tren de Aragua, a Venezuelan group, became a prison gang in the 2010s and then became a larger crime group Always the main goal Since the 2024 campaign, Trump’s rhetoric has been often conducted in the context of immigration policies and his administration’s massive deportation campaign.
The group is known primarily for crimes such as ransomware and trafficking, and although the organization has been involved in the sale of drugs at the local level and, in some cases, small amounts of drugs across borders, Experts are skeptical about Us Accusation It is bringing a lot of drugs into the United States.
“Tren de Aragua and MS-13 [a Salvadoran gang also now listed as a terrorist organization] You can call it Poor Organized criminal groups,” Adam Isacsona defense and drug policy analyst Latin American Office in Washington. “They make money to blackmail people in the communities they control. If they actually operate a ship carrying a lot of cocaine, that would be new.”
The administration has not provided evidence of how it knows who is on board, although Trump did say, “We have videotapes.”
No matter who is in charge, it is not uncommon for the U.S. military (usually the Coast Guard or the Navy) to carry drugs. But using lethal force on these ships is unusual, especially when it appears in Videos shared by the Trump administration – No efforts were made to warn the vessel or detain it.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said US troops did have a chance to stop the ship, but Trump Choose to destroy it To send deterrent messages to traffickers. “We didn’t ban it under the order of the president, but we blew it up – it will happen again,” Rubio said.
Frankly, this raises some legal issues. White House spokesman Anna Kelly said in a statement that the strike was to “defend the collective self-defense of the U.S. national interests and other countries” and that it was to The Washington Post explained To refer to the authorization of military forces opposing terrorists after the 9/11 attacks.
Even Authorization to use military power is very prolonged Resolved in 2001, this will be a touch. Under Article 2 of the Constitution, the government is more likely to rely on the president’s power as commander-in-chief. Despite broad agreement that the Constitution empowers the president to use military power to imminent threats without Congress’ mandate, recent administrations have pushed for the limitations of this authority. The White House is expected Explain its reasons A tribute to Congress soon.
It is not actually a death arrest warrant, although the president and other officials called Tren de Argua the “anthologist” and formally listed him as a terrorist organization. Brian Finucanenow is the former State Council legal adviser to the International Crisis Group. The FTO and SDGT list authorize a range of sanctions and criminalize legal support to these groups, but do not authorize military forces against them, and as Finucane points out, “this operation is widely misunderstood within the U.S. administration and bureaucratically can help pave the way for military operations.”
Finucane notes that when the Iranian Revolutionary Guards go public Drone strike kills General Qassem Soleimani.
“This helps further their narrative, participating in a terror war in Latin America,” Finucane said.
Is this the first shot in a wider war?
The problem now is the look of war. Isacson of Wola suggested that strikes in international waters could be “dial” “toward more provocative actions such as strikes in sovereign territories of other countries or against strikes accused of supporting their governments.
The idea of taking military action in Mexico is Popular among Republican Congressmena ship strike masked Rubio’s highly anticipated visit to Mexico this week. Literal fight Eruption in the Mexican Senate Last week, a heated debate was held on the subject of U.S. military intervention.
For now, this seems to have been blocked. After the meeting between Rubio and President Claudia Simbaum Two countries agree to expand cooperation Crack down drug cartels while respecting each other’s “sovereignty”. Of course, this idea may come back.
As for Venezuela, the United States offered a $50 million reward last month for the information that led to the arrest of Maduro. “This may be Norriga Part 2” referring to US military operations This is the Panamanian dictator and Narcotrafficker Manuel Noriega who was removed and arrested in 1990.
Venezuela is a bigger country, avoiding long-term given Trump’s preference Attract military deploymentPanamanian style invasion seems unlikely. However, “precision” strikes on Venezuelan territory certainly seem unlikely. Rubio, as a senator, suggested he would use military powerRestoring democracy”In Venezuela.
In the first Trump administration, the United States supports Opposition leader Juan Guimo And after the controversy, he was regarded as Venezuela’s legitimate president 2019 Presidential Electioneven though it is obvious, Maduro has been supported by his army despite hope in Washington, and Guazo has little hope of taking power.
Michael Shifter, professor of Latin American Studies at Georgetown University, is skeptical about the concept. By some analysts and Venezuelan opposing figuresthe regime may collapse when the pressure on the United States escalates.
“We have always underestimated Maduro and his ability to bring things together,” he said.
It is obvious that early speculation from the Trump administration is that the United States and Venezuela may move forward, especially in Negotiated hostage release in Januaryit’s too early.
expert, Including US intelligence agenciesdoubting the Trump administration’s claim that Maduro directly controls the Venezuelan regime, Terrón de Alaguya Fully documented links to organized crime.
This may be one of the reasons why the left-wing President Gustavo Petro of Colombia, who called the ship’s strike “murder,” the response in the region has also been muted, even from the government’s usual rapid alarm on U.S. intervention. Convene the US Army “Kill drug traffickers violently.” )
In the early days of the Trump administration, when the president openly argued with Peter and demanded the Panama Canal to return to control of the United States, it seemed that Latin America would be an anomaly. The focus of US foreign policyleading to people’s speculation about “Monroe Theory 2.0”. This has not completely disappeared because the attention has shifted to events in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. But given the focus of crime and immigration, the region appears to play a bigger role in the US military focus.
one Memorandum by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth Earlier this month, the military commander mentioned that “the president decided to restore our neglected position in the Western Hemisphere.” It also listed “sealing our borders” and Countternarcotics as a priority to block China above the Pentagon, which has been seen as the overall “pacing challenge” for the department.
Regardless of their feelings about drug gangs or Venezuela’s corruption and authoritarian regime, this may make leaders in the region nervous.
“Maduro has no solidarity,” Shifter said. However, he added: “I feel nervous and afraid about it. They are all thinking, what is this guy doing, are we next?”
In addition to paying more attention to Latin America, the strike also showed that the government was willing to expand the scope of military power that could be used. The strike was announced the same week that Trump was Public discussion send The deployment to Washington, D.C. last month to more cities including Chicago and New Orleans, is another dramatic application of the military to traditionally civilian law enforcement.
Although there are multiple administrative departments in the United States Cut down what was once called the “global war on terrorism” Many legal authorities and institutions that emerged as part of the conflict remained. For example, the institution called ICE was created in its current form after 9/11. Reorganization created Department of Homeland Security. Trump once threatened to resume the threat of sending terrorist suspects to Guantanamo Bay during his first term. Never happened, but during his second term, the government had Spend millions of people to deport immigrants.
This week’s strike in the Caribbean is just the latest example of how the spirit of the post-9/11 war on terrorism remains alive.
