Beyond encryption: Why quantum computing might be more of a science boom than a cybersecurity bust

Last August, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) released the first three “Quantum post-cryptographic standard“Aim to withstand attacks from quantum computers. For years, cryptography experts have worried that the advent of quantum computing could spell the traditional doom Encryption method. As technology now extends firmly, the new NIST standard represents the first step towards post-quantum protection.

But has the threat of quantum computing to encryption been identified as? Quantum computers are indeed able to break traditional encryption faster and easier, but there is still a long way to go from the “secret-free” decryption box imagined in the 1992 film. Sports shoes. With energy demand and computing power still limiting factors, people with quantum computers may be considering better use of technology elsewhere, such as science, medicines and healthcare.

Remember the electron microscope theory?

I spent a long time working on digital forensics, which gave me a unique perspective on the challenges of quantum computing. In 1996, Peter Gutman published a white paper, “Delete Data from Magnetic and Solid State Memory,” which theoretically could be used to retrieve deleted data from hard drives using electron microscopes. Is this possible? Maybe – but ultimately, the process will be very laborious, resource-intensive and unreliable. More importantly, soon after, the hard drive stores information in a intensive way, and even the electron microscope has no hope of recovering deleted data.

In fact, there is little evidence that such electron microscopes have been successfully used for this purpose, and Modern testing confirms This method is neither practical nor reliable. But the fear is real – which led to the US Department of Defense (Defense) issuing a well-known “7-pass” data erasure method to eliminate any forensic evidence that an electron microscope can be theoretically detected. Should we take such additional precautions using sensitive or classified data? certainly. But the threat is far less terrible. When it comes to quantum computing, we may go along a similar path.

The actual reality of quantum computing

First, it is important to understand how quantum computing works. Although movies love to portray hackers, it’s not a magic wand, and it will immediately end cryptography as we know it. It still needs to give a single message and assume the task of breaking the encryption – which means that an attacker will need a good understanding of which messages contain valuable information. It sounds easy, but it’s not just 300 billion emails Sent every day, and trillions of text. There are several ways to narrow your search, but still need to Attacker Invest a lot of computing power on the problem.

This put me in the real problem: computing power is not infinite. Quantum computing is at the forefront of technology, which means your average script Kiddie or Hackers collectively Can’t master it. The only participants who can use quantum computers (and the energy required to run them) will be nation-state actors and large companies such as Google, Microsoft and AI companies. In short, quantum computing will initially be expensive and will not be as fast as many people claim – meaning nation-states can only have too much computing power. So, the question is: Are you really going to spend it on the decomposition of encryption protocols?

Real use cases of quantum

The answer is strong… maybe. For me, the real advantage of quantum depends on research, economic competition and global influence. This doesn’t mean that if hostile nation-states take what they know on what they know, then quantum computers won’t use crack encryption – but that’s not the primary way to use technology. Look at it this way: If you are foreign electricity and have access to the most advanced computer models on the planet, what would you do with them? Would you chase wildly through millions of encrypted communications, or would you devote critical time, energy and calculations to cure cancer, eliminate dementia, or create advanced new material? For me, it’s easy. Individual attackers may be after short-term gains, but countries will think longer.

Quantum computing may drive Major breakthrough In the development of new materials and catalysts, stronger and lighter composites are created and more reactive catalysts are provided for chemical processes. This alone can revolutionize multiple industries, thus providing greater long-term benefits to countries deploying the technology. Quantum computing also shows hope in the pharmaceutical industry to help researchers grow More effective medicines and other treatments at other times. The technology is even used to enhance Space travel capability Make navigation more accurate and optimize fuel usage by enabling faster trajectory calculations.

It depends on the cost-benefit analysis. Only nation-states and large corporations will soon access quantum computing – will they really spend limited computing power to crack encryption algorithms when they can boost their economic output and dominate financial markets? That’s not to say that every use case for quantum computing is good – in the wrong hands, it can certainly be used in a dangerous way. But the context is important because some people think that the looming so-called “quantum apocalypse” is very concerned.

Breaking encryption on the list of quantum computing use cases? Yes. But this is not high on the list. So before we spend billions of dollars tearing apart and replacing every cryptographic algorithm in use, it may be time to take a deep breath and think about how to actually use quantum computing.

Rob Lee is a research director and faculty director Sans Institute.