St. Paul – Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro When the room does not exist Supreme Court The team was convicted and sentenced him to 27 years and three months in prison for attempting a coup.
With Bolsonaro’s arrest and poor health, his lawyer said the former leader was seriously ill and could not attend the final hearing. But despite his fragility and his beliefs, Bolsonaro Political influence will certainly last.
Even after the sentencing, public opinion has disagreements on whether he committed a crime and should be imprisoned, and even if experts agree, far-right politicians will continue to have a significant impact on the political landscape of Latin American giants.
“Perhaps we’ll see something relatively new in Brazilian politics: a public figure arrested by the House, unable to formally participate in politics due to beliefs and impossible, but still affects the political process,” said anthropologist Isallopela Kalil, coordinator of Extreme Right Observer, Minas Gerais State’s “Minas Gerais State.”
Four days before his conviction, thousands Bolsonaro Supporters travel through the streets Brazil exist independence Day. Among them is Luiz Niemeyer, a 62-year-old businessman in Rio de Janeiro, who sees the former president as the “hero” who has established an unstoppable political movement.
“Ideal was not killed, Ideal was not arrested,” he said. “You can arrest Bolsonaroyou can kill Bolsonarobut these ideals will not die. ”
Photo: Although he has confidence
Polls show Bolsonaro Still center Brazilian Polarized landscape. Even in prison, he can determine who brings the flag of the alliance to the 2026 election. Observers say that to be a competitor against President Luiz Inácio Lulada Silva, who is expected to run for reelection, any opposition candidate must first ensure a vital electoral foundation and explicitly support the far-right leader Bolsonaro.
Recent polls have shown that Lula has restored his popularity, suggesting he will be a competitive candidate for the next election.
But a poll released by Atlasintel on August 28 showed Lula and Bolsonaro In the hypothetical election situation, if an election is to be held, and there are the same 2022 candidates on the ballot. In the first round, Bolsonaro There will be 45.4% of the vote, while Lula will have 44.6% of the votes. The poll surveyed 6,238 voters online from August 20 to August 20, 2025. The error range is 1 percentage point.
The country is also divided by Bolsonaro’s beliefs. A DataFolha poll from August found that 48% of Brazilians want to see Bolsonaro Incarcerated, while 46% want him to remain free. The survey had a margin of error of 2 percentage points, which was conducted by more than 2,000 people from 130 municipalities.
“When people ask me if I miss me Bolsonaro Being weakened, my answer is that it depends on the point of view.
“If you think it happened on January 8, all of this happened, but he still has a foundation and continues to shape the direction on the far right and the direction of most rights, I don’t think it’s a sign of weakness,” she said. “When Bolsonaro’s supporters supported 2023, he met with a portion of the Brazilian, when the public buildings in Brosilia were planned in part of the Brazilian.
Silas Malafaia, an evangelical pastor and one of Bolsonaro’s most influential allies, responded to the belief that the former president remained a key political figure despite his legal troubles.
“No one will take Bolsenro’s prominence away, whether he is in prison or not,” he said in late August. “He is the greatest right-wing leader in Latin America.”
In fact, as a way to express their support, some Bolsonrow’s allies are working to pass Congress to push an amnesty bill that will allow former leaders to avoid time in prison. Some even called for the restoration of his political rights as he was banned from running until 2030, part of a separate process against him.
“We should push his final game to award Bolsonaro amnesty and qualify him as our candidate,” Senator Ciro Nogueira, a former chief of staff, told the Associated Press in a telephone interview. “With him, we would not win the election. He is the main leader, the guiding figure.”
But in fact, Brazil’s right-wing leaders have begun to consider Plan B.
Nogueira leads Progressistas, one Brazilian The most powerful right-wing party and appointed São Paulo Governor Tarcísiio de Freitas and Parana Gov. Ratinho Junior as potential candidates for president, as well as Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of the former president.
Both governors joined the street demonstrations convened by Bolsonaro, defending his innocence. But Bolsonaro’s son, who is still the core of his inner circle, does not necessarily trust them.
As governor Brazilian De Freitas is the richest and most populous state and is a strong contender for the 2026 election. Former Minister and Officer Bolson Rowe are widely regarded as the right candidate.
Depend on Supreme Court In August, Eduardo Bolsonaro, who lives in the United States Supreme Court At the same time, quietly prepare for your own presidential campaign.
De Freitas declined to comment on the allegation, and although he did not admit that he would run for president, he said he would immediately give Bolson Rowe an amnesty if elected in 2026.
The governor attended independence Day Demo St. Paul On Sunday. Imitating the former president’s previous speech, DeFritas called up justice, and he oversaw the coup Supreme Court. He said: “No one can have a just tyranny like Moras.”
After the sentence on X, X said Bolsonaro and other convicted officials were “victims of unfair sentences”.
“Keep strong, President. We’ll stay with you!” he said.
Bolsonaro’s beliefs can mark a new chapter in Brazilian politics.
Esther Solano, a sociologist at the Federal University of St. Paul, has been following Bolsonaro voters and evangelicals since 2017, calling it “Bolsonarism 2.0”.
Her investigation shows supporters believe Bolsonaro is crucial to launching a conservative crusade, but the movement is now strong enough to make him more and more. Solano noted that new figures are emerging, including de Freitas, former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, Congressman Nikolas Ferreira and other evangelical leaders.
“Bolsonism is entering a new phase: integration, reinforcement and a new ecosystem of leaders that they will improve from the downfall of Bolsonaro,” she said.
