Charlie Kirk, one of the leading conservative activists in the United States and A close friend of President Donald Trump’s son Xiao Tang was murdered. We don’t know who did it or why. We don’t know how the Trump administration will respond.
But, all we know is that there is good reason to be afraid.
When a famous politician is assassinated, the foundation of democracy is attacked. Democratic politics is essentially a system that encompasses political violence: a system that resolves the inevitable deep divisions among citizens without anyone resorting to bloodshed. It works when all the major factions believe that others are committed to following the rules of the game of peace politics; it breaks down when this belief erodes.
In the past, the consensus on democracy in the United States was enough to survive assassination attempts. Some, such as the murder of Martin Luther King Jr., have tested their bonds but have not broken them. Others, such as the assassination of John F. Kennedy Jr., may actually enhance them by creating a shared sense of sorrow and solidarity.
But now, the political system in the United States is collapsing, and many of its tools that contain political violence are undermined. This may not be an event that undermines the United States, but we must consider possible possibilities.
Over the past year, our democracy has made great progress.
Today’s democratic contract is undoubtedly weak. The two major political parties and their supporters increasingly see each other as partners, but rather existential threats to each other’s way of life. Political scientist Lilliana Mason and Nathan Kalmoe This is, while few Americans fully support political murders, more and more fringes on both sides have begun to use violence against their partisan enemies.
Under extreme polarization, it is too easy to see how things get out of control when the guardrail of mutual democratic tolerance is blown into debris. Leading right-wing numbers are not only already prematurely blaming the attack”Democratic Party,” but also requested Law enforcement suppression exist Liberals and Leftists As a group. If Trump takes action on these calls, it will further undermine democratic respect between us and the abyss. Political violence in the future will become increasingly likely. The violent collapse of the democratic order will be imminent.
How likely is this? I have no idea.
Recall the time when Trump was shot dead during the campaign last summer. Almost everything I just said The wear and tear of democratic order is realimmediately arrive at the top Trump allies, without evidence, accusing the left. However, the assassination attempt did not inspire a wave of attacks and would not endanger the democratic process.
Something similar may happen this time. There may be no imitators or retaliation against the attack, and the Trump administration may ultimately not use it as a reason to attack its political enemies. This will fit into historical patterns: as a political scientist Dan Trombly notesgiven the generality of guns and deep partisan hostility, the United States has long had much lower political violence.
But I also think it is undeniable that the chances of problems are worse now than last year.
This is partly because we are dealing with assassinations – horrible murders – rather than barely missing. Part of the reason is that we don’t know the identity of the shooter yet: If Trump shooters were obviously politically motivated, 2024 could be worse than before.
But this is also because our democratic decline has made considerable progress over the past year.
It is undeniable that Trump has indeed undermined the non-partisan structure of the U.S. state, focusing power in his own hands, including law enforcement and the military. As a result, Democrats have become More and less confident Democracy will survive his presidency – they can trust Republicans to abide by the rules of the game. There has never been a more terrifying moment, including January 6, than the second Trump administration.
So, I can’t be sure that things will come out the way last summer. They might do that. Under normal circumstances, I would Confident They will.
But I can’t. Our system is too corrupt to shoot with distrust, unable to rely on democratic beliefs, and cannot free us from this belief.
